Valuable takeaways from Professor Daniel Kahneman, one of the most influential figures in behavioral finance

We usually get to see renowned figures on the TV rather than in real life. Like Nobel Laureates it’s more likely for us to hear of their names than get to know them. We might assume such knowledgeable and impactful figures as Nobel Laureates to be difficult to comprehend as their knowledge may be beyond our understanding.

But seeing Professor Daniel Kahneman’s session at the 71st CFA Institute Annual Conference overthrew the misconception; the Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences spoke in clear and easy to understand terms of thought-provoking messages. Here are my valuable takeaways from him.

On planning fallacies and ways to avoid:

  • Whenever there is judgement, there is noise.

  • Algorithms are noise-free and better than human judgement.

  • People underestimate uncertainties the market holds.

  • Optimism is everywhere when people plan.

  • Optimism is a risk.

  • The remedy is a broad view.

  • Take an outside view.

On how to be happy:

  • When there is a problem in life, ask advice before making a decision.

  • People to turn to for advice: people who like you and do not care about your feelings.

It’s wisdom to remember. What do you think?


諾貝爾經濟學獎得主丹尼爾·康納曼教授的規劃智慧

對於一些出名或權威級的人物,例如諾貝爾獎得主,我們甚少有機會與之見面及交談,所以很容易會設想這些學識淵博影響甚廣的人物的知識非我們能輕易明白。然而,有幸聽到諾貝爾經濟學獎得主丹尼爾·康納曼教授的現場分享,打破了我的謬想。

我是在第71屆CFA Institute(特許金融分析師協會)峰會上聽到丹尼爾·康納曼教授的分享的。教授是行為經濟學的權威、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主,與我們分享他的深度智慧時,由淺入深,清晰易明,實在讓我敬佩不已。

說到如何滅少規劃謬誤和作出更好的決定時,教授提出了我們常怱略的一個行為因素—隨機變動性,做決定時,我們的判斷帶有隨機變動性,即是在兩個相同的情況下,我們的判斷可以很不一樣,這種變動性會影響我們作出有誤差的決定。所以如果可行,我們應以機械演算法來替我們作判斷,因為演算法做決定時不會隨機變動,可確保無誤差預測及抉擇。

教授亦提到人們常低估市場的不確定性,還可能過分樂觀,而構成風險。我們應以一個局外的角度、全面的視野來看事情。

當被問到快樂的方法時,教授說遇到困難時,應先問人意見才作決定,應問誰意見呢?那些喜歡你但不把你的感受放在第一位的人。

教授的一席話真讓人獲益良多,你認為呢?